Java Data Structures
C# Data Structures
Gov & Misc Docs
App Dev (old)
|Welcome to www.theparticle.com.
It's the newest pre-IPO dot bomb that's taking the world by storm.
Now is a perfect time to buy lots of worthless and overpriced shares!|
Internet is becoming more and more polluted with
junk-mail, people selling crap, and businesses which don't know their place on the net.
They're all trying to make this wonderful place (i.e.: the net) in to hell (i.e.: real
world). Internet should be viewed as a place of imagination, creativity, and most of all:
fun. Internet is not some really advanced tool for searching for people to rip-off. It's
about searching, and finding, things which are useful, helpful, and promote the sharing of
ideas. This is what this site is striving to become.
News, Updates, & Rants...
Virtually attending Berkshire Hathaway meeting... on Yahoo Finance (which stupidly enough doesn't allow Linux web-browsers to view the livestream; had to dig out my Surface Go to view the thing).
- Alex; 20190405
May 4th at wikipedia...
...and back in NYC :-)
- Alex; 20190429
Flying out at 2pm. Kona to LA. It seems we were the last ones to arrive to the flight.
Then LA to NYC flight.
- Alex; 20190428
Drove to south point.
Fed horses on the way.
- Alex; 20190427
Drove to Akaka falls, and didn't see anything due to fog. Broke some sugar-cane on the side of the road though. Kiddo seems to instinctively know how to chew it...
Drove to Rainbow Falls (near Hilo).
Stopped by Mauna Kea visitor's center on the way back to Kona. It was overcast, and drizzling rain. Good thing I went on the big hike earlier in the week---it seems it's snowing on the summit.
- Alex; 20190426
Visiting the Volcanoes National Park Kahuku Unit. It's right next to the south point road.
On the way there, got a tire puncture (yeah, the Jeep, big fat tires, eh). Spent the rest of the day driving back to Kona, and re-pumping the tire at every other gas-station.
Got a replacement rental: Chevy Equinox (not 4wd).
- Alex; 20190425
Drove down the Waipio Valley, and built sand castles with kiddo on the black-sand beach.
On the way back, we were searching for Umauma falls, which we thought might be down Mana Road. That's the road that circles the Mauna Kea on the East, and it goes through some amazing landscapes with zero people. The drive is above the clouds though lively green grass on a dirt-road. It was just amazing.
Unfortunately, the road came to a gate---and we didn't know if it was private property or not, so decided to turn back. The road does terminate at the Saddle Road (according to google maps), but somewere could pass though a ranch or few. Anyways, amazing drive.
- Alex; 20190424
My big hike day.
Headed out at midnight from Kona, and drove to Mauna Loa observatory (at 10k feet). Got there by 2am. Slept in car until 6am (to get aclimated).
At 6am, headed to summit. 3.5-hours later, got to the summit. Very sunny and awesome day. Another 3.5 hours later was back in the car. Picked up a big (perhaps 20lb?) white-lava rock from the summit.
Decided to drive up the Muana Kea summit. After a short drive, and a quick run to the summit, desposited the big white-lava rock at the summit (I occasionally translplant rocks from mountains just to confuse future geologists: there's a piece of Mnt.Mansfield on Mnt.Washington :-)
- Alex; 20190423
Doing the chain of craters road at Volcano National Park.
At the end of the chain of craters... there's a... new road. So the road continues. My guess to Kalapana. It's closed to traffic, but open to hikers.
- Alex; 20190421
Visiting beaches near Kona.
There's one that requires a 4WD right next to the airport.
- Alex; 20190420
Went to see turtles by the... turtle beach (next to Kona airport).
Drove to Volcano National Park, and saw the ``road closed'' sign to Jagger museum.
Stopped by Mauna Kea on the way back to see stars. Apparently the nightly star-gazing thing at Mauna Kea visitor's center is no more (at least until they finish construction).
- Alex; 20190419
Flying out to Hawaii. Just the big island this time.
Checked into a hotel in Kona. Will spend the rest of the trip here (note to self, get a room with a better view next time; partial ocean front isn't as good as "ocean front").
- Alex; 20190418
Regarding the broken Intel NUC7I7BNH: ordered a replacement fan on amazon, got it today, and replaced it. The NUC appears to be functioning perfectly again.
- Alex; 20190327
The CPU fan in my Intel NUC7I7BNH died (24/7 since May 2017; barely 2 years of operation :-/
Strangely enough, the much older NUC D54250WYK is still functioning flawlessly (24/7 since April 2014).
- Alex; 20190324
Ok... so the yield curve has inverted. Why should we care? Bond prices are a good proxy for future sentiment---high prices (low yields) indicates folks don't think there's economic growth ahead. So inverted yield curve means short term bonds are priced more than long term bonds... that pretty much says: everyone's expecting volatility short term, and lower growth long term.
- Alex; 20190322
Finished Energy: A Human History by Richard Rhodes. It's an awesome history book---focused quite a bit on energy derived from wood, coal, and oil, with a very tiny bit focused on nuclear, solar, wind, etc.
For a history on nuclear stuffs, a much better book is: The Making of the Atomic Bomb by Richard Rhodes. I must say I've enjoyed the atomic bomb book much more than the energy book.
- Alex; 20190315
- Alex; 20190314
Yey, Anniversary! 3-years!
- Alex; 20190311
Finished The Order of Time by Carlo Rovelli. Pretty good book with some new ideas. We think entropy (disorder) increases with time, but perhaps it's due to our perspective. For example, if we take an ordered deck of cards, and shuffle it, it's unlikely that we'll get the original ordered deck (yey, shuffling increases disorder!). But what if we shuffle the deck, then treat that shuffled deck as being particular in some way---shuffling will similarly not return it to that particular initial order. The difference is that shuffling rearranges things, but in the second instance we don't assume that there's any particular order to things in the beginning. (yes, it's true that shuffling moves us further way from the initial configuration---but it doesn't mean that the original configuration was more or less disordered than later).
There are other neat thought experiments, such as what would the world look like without time? Would things stop happening? Perhaps there would be notion of local time (if there's no global time?). Relativity pretty much says there's no such thing as global time---all time is relative, etc.
Other neat things: Entropy could be related to correlated coincidences. For example, tea cup falls on the floor and breaks. Time moves forward. We don't see pieces come together and form a tea-cup. Why? There's nothing in physical laws that is preventing all those pieces (and sound, and heat, etc.) to come together and form a tea-cup, and yet it just doesn't happen. If we reversed everything (literally everything) then the cup would un-break, but that would be a very improbable coincidense. So whenever we notice correlations (stuff that appears to be related in some way) we assume that there's a single [perhaps not first order] cause that's behind the correlation.
- Alex; 20190309
Finally got around to microwaving a grape... and it pretty much looked just like this.
- Alex; 20190228
Finished reading Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Very similar to Antifragile. Both pretty good books. I've yet to find things that I'd strongly disagree with in most of his writing (he's a bit full of himself though, but all in all, whatever he writes about is interesting to read and makes sense), though I liked the style of Fooled by Randomness more than this `new' bloggy-rant-kinda writing style.
- Alex; 20190227
...and back in NYC :-)
- Alex; 20190219/small>
Orlando day. Started out of the hotel a bit late (enjoyed the pool, etc.), and then decided to go sight seeing. One of the places we tried to visit was Disneyland. Not knowing anything (and this being our first trip here), we just drove there---thinking there's some places to visit. Apparently not. You can't get in without a ticket, and that's $130 per person. There's no place to "walk around for two hours". Urgh.
So we went to Wekiwa Springs State Park. It was awesome. We didn't know what kind of park it was, so weren't prepared. This park is best visited in swimming wear, and go on a kayaking trip. But eh, it was fun to walk around for an hour or so before the flight.
- Alex; 20190218
So apparently the best beaches in Florida are near Tampa. The ``sand'' there is powdery white (very weird compared to conventional sand elsewhere). We went to the beach that's right next to Clearwater, thinking it would be less-crowded than Clearwater. It was very very very crowded. Took us a long while to find parking, by sheer luck (a car was pulling out right where we were).
Kiddo played in the water, in the sand, etc. It was awesome. All of us got sun-burns.
- Alex; 20190217
Visiting Everglades National Park. Saw aligators and crocodiles. Aligator: fresh-water, crocodile: salt-water. In Florida that is.
On the way out of Everlades, stopped by Everglades Gator Grill and had aligator burger, and frog legs with rice. Always wanted to try those. Frog legs taste awesome (much better than I was expecting). They're a bit of a pain to eat due to tiny bones. Aligator meat... eh, not as good as chicken.
Next stop: Tampa.
- Alex; 20190216
Landed in Oralndo, rented a Jeep Renegade, and long drive to the tip of Florida.
First thing, the Advantage car rental sucks. I reserved a mid-size SUV for the trip. Prepaid. When I get to the counter, all they have are minivans. ``sorry''. Nothing but minivans. Nothing else. That's that. So... if I reserved a cheap-box-on-wheels sedan (half the cost), I'd still get a minivan... so assume my reservation is for a cheap sedan and give me the price difference? (if I'm gonna end up with a car I didn't want, be nice about it). No, they don't operate that way. Then I get to the garage to pickup the minivan, and... they got other cars there. They got a Toyota Sequoia! But that's a $40/day upgrade, and they won't honor my "I want an SUV that I prepaid for!" claim. Then I notice other SUVs, Toyota Rav4, etc. But ah, those "aven't available". Why not---I did reserve exactly this kind of car and I even prepaid!!! "there's some mechanical problem with all of them, so we can't rent them out". Yeah, right! In the end, they gave me a Jeep Renegade (which was also initially on the "mechanical problem" list, but then turned out to be perfectly fine). This is the crappiest rental car behavior I've ever seen: if you have the damn car, just give it... especially since the customer pre-paid for it!
Anyway, drove all the way to Fort Zachary Taylor. Kiddo went for a walk in the ocean. Awesome drive. Got a hotel in Homestead.
- Alex; 20190215
Flying out to Orlando, FL. Planning to do a road-trip all over florida.
- Alex; 20190214
Finished reading Death's End: Remembrance of Earth's Past by Cixin Liu and Ken Liu (Translator). This concludes the 3-body problem trilogy... there really is no way to continue the story beyond this point (the universe ends, the end).
All in all, an awesome trilogy. Starts out very slow, but then speeds up quite a bit. Very imaginative, and has some concepts I haven't encountered in other places. Imagine startrek universe with nothing borrowed from startrek.
- Alex; 20190212
Caught something on the weekend---passed out the whole day Monday.
- Alex; 20190204
Visited some of the Catskills trailheads---such as Peekamoose mountain. Can't realy hike with a 1-year-old... just click some neat snowy pix.
- Alex; 20190203
Spontaneously decided to spend the weekend upstate---in the Catskills. Booked a hotel (with a pool), and within a few minutes, we were on the way there.
- Alex; 20190202
...and back in NY.
Also, classes start tonight, and I'm a jetlagged zombie running on caffeine :-)
- Alex; 20190128
Drive drive drive to Delhi...
- Alex; 20190127
Kiddo's belated b-day party.
- Alex; 20190126
- Alex; 20190125
Arrived in Delhi, and drive drive drive to Ambala.
- Alex; 20190119
...and off to India I go. At the Air India checkin counter, they assigned a middle-of-the-row seat to me, when I'm pretty sure I pre-paid for the extra-leg-room seat. Naturally I didn't have a reciept, and had to dig up my credit card bill (online) just to prove that there was a charge on the credit card from air-india for the seat. Sp what happened is that they gave up my seat to someone else... and apparently gave an extra leg-room seat to someone else for free, and had to move that other passenger and give me their seat.
That seat hassle wasted about an hour of time, so by the time I got through security the flight was already boarding :-/
- Alex; 20190118
... and back in NY :-)
- Alex; 20190114
Yosemite wasn't as closed as I thought. Highway 120 (which I took from death valley to Yosemite) was actually closed---but then a bit farther north highway 140 was open and very accessible (no issues with snow). The rangers at the booth didn't collect fees, and were very helpful in letting visitors know what's open and where.
Bathrooms in the park are closed (as well as visitor centers). There's poop (almost certainly human) on the trails---so there's that. What did they expect when they closed bathrooms?
Anyway, didn't spend much time in the park. Did a short walk to the lower yosemite waterfall, clicked some pictures from the valley, and headed out.
Visited a few friends in SF area, and headed to airport.
- Alex; 20190113
Got to SF, and with a bit of hindsight, upgraded the rental car to a Jeep to avoid repeating last week's incident. Headed to the Telescope Peak trailhead.
...and guess what, about 12 miles or so from the trailhead, the road is closed. As in the gate is closing the road. Stupid government shut-down!
Seeing that I can't do telescope peak (if I walk up the road, that will mostly double the length of the hike, and triple elevation gain, and I only have one day for this day-hike, so no feasible), decided to do a tour of death valley---starting with a visit to the Racetrack (got a jeep, might as well use it).
Many roads in the park are closed. Drive ins to places like sand dunes are closed---because the public toilets (which are essentially a hole in the ground) are ``overflowing''. Most places in the park are accessible though (can park on the side of the road and walk).
The Racetrack road is open. Set the jeep into 4wd-low mode, and headed down the road at barely-safe pace. That road from the pavement to racetrack takes about 40 minutes---keeping that barely-safe speed.
Here's a tip to driving off-road: set car into 4wd-low mode (by going through neutral; this is the same process that's on the toyota 4runner). Then, maintain 30-50mph speed limit. Anything below that means lots of bumps (the slower you go the more bumpby the ride). Anything above that is way too fast... It's important to realize that 4wd helps in acceleration, not stopping. So if you're approaching a curve at 40mph that you feel isn't "safe" at that speed, the natural reaction is to tap on the breaks (which will probably skid you into the curve). The correct thing to do is to tap the accelerator and steer into the curve, that way you're using your 4wd acceleration (and traction) to go in the direction you want to go, instead of skidding to a stop into side side of the curve... It takes a bit of practice, but you can float into curves at great speed just by using accelerator and the natural drag/friction of the road for stopping (e.g. do not use car breaks---think of breaks as going back to 2wd mode).
Anyways, at the Racetrack, couldn't find rocks with trails. Or at least couldbn't find many. Maybe it was just the lighting conditions, or that it rained recently, but most rocks there didn't have a trail. Very different from previous visits.
Fron there, decided to do the west-side-road. That's the road that goes behind the badwater basin---I never had enough time to do it, and this weekend is going for a toss anyway, might as well just drive it. It's not very exciting. It's just a dirt road similar to the racetrack road, but without the neat sightseeing at the end. Oh, and goes on for 3-hours! Yes, that west-side road is damn long!
Seeing that the weekend was mostly wasted on death valley road trip, decided to drive to Yosemite to see if there's anything there. Fully expecting the roads to be closed :-)
- Alex; 20190112
Flying out to SF, planning to hike Telescope Peak in death valley. Bringing snow shoes, snow hiking gear, etc.
- Alex; 20190111
...and back in NYC! :-)
- Alex; 20190107
The following morning a bit more snow fell. Woke up in the ``snowed in'' car. Had a few snacks for breakfast, and waited for the ranger to show up, which he did very promptly. He took me for a ride around the park, checking all the trailheads, all the camp sites, etc., everything for any other visitors. Apparently there was one crazy person to camp out (probably down by the colorado river) on that night. No other visitors in the park.
It's amazing, but the park rangers actually keep track of who is the park during these times. e.g. while riding along in the car, they keep track of what kind of car entered the park, whether there were tracks leading into the park, etc., very perceptive. In retrospect, I think they would've spotted my stuck car in the morning while they were doing their rounds of the park (they pretty much toured all the accessible roads of the park---unless you went well into the wilderness, they would've spotted the car or tracks). They probably wouldb't know what state the park visitor was in unless they noticed the actual vihicle, etc., but it's still neat that they try to keep a tally of who is in the park and where.
The park ranger called the towing company, and that was many many hours away (because they were busy pulling folks out of the snowstorm elsewhere). In the mean time, I got to spend the day riding along... and getting to experience some of their day-to-day tasks. Among which was cow herding. Occasionally, the neighbouring ranch cows get out from their enclosure and get into the park. The park rangers try to get those cows back into the correct place... moslty by intimidating the cow back into the enclosure. So I helped chase a cow back into the ranch... if it's more than a few (more than a single ranger can handle), they call the ranch to bring in the actual cowbosy (on horses!) to round up the wondering cows (so after managing to get 1 into the enclosure, we spotted dozen or so outside, and for those ranger called in the ranch for help).
Late in the afternoon the tow company folks showed up, in a pickup truck. Pretty much the same kind of pickup tuck the park rangers use. Anyway, we (the park ranger and I) escorted them to the car, where they attached a cable to the back wheel, and the other end to the rear tow wench of the truck---while one of the tow buys was in the car steeering right, the other one was in the truck pulling on the back right wheel.
All three wheels of the car went in the air, and the car was pretty easily pulled out of the ditch (sort of weird, because it had be put a bit more into the ditch to be taken out of the ditch);
I was free of the snow!, and getting late for the flight back. So I paid the tow company, etc., and drive drive drive to Salt Lake City for the flight which I thought I'll have to miss...
Made it to the flight, all is well.
Note to self, if it's snowing or any off-road (dirt-road) driving, then get a 4-wheel-drive car next time. It's cheaper than being pulled out of a ditch in some remote place.
- Alex; 20190106
Arrived in Salt Lake City, and after a hour-wait long inside the airplane (there was no available gate to de-plane the airplane), set out to drive to Needles (the south-eastern part of Canyonlands).
For the trip, rented a Toyota Corolla, which was an awesome car---it has automatic high-beams... so it turns them on when needed, and turns them off when there's oncoming traffic. That was pretty neat. Also had adaptive cruize control, so if the car in front slows down or stops, the car will automatically slow down and stop, etc. I want that in my future car.
Anyways, got to Needles very very early, and... it's snowy. There's actually snow in Needles! Not too much, but about 4-6 inches everywhere. Proceeded to the trailhead at Elephant Hill---which is just a few miles down a very twisty steep dirt road.
So far, there was only 1 other car that I've seen in the entire park. I think the government shutdown and the fact that it's a snowy weekend had something to do with that. The visitor's center is closed---even the bathroom is closed.
For the hike doing the "usual" loop: elehpant hill to druid arch, then to joint trail, then to confluence point, then back to elephant hill. Started around 7 in the morning, and ended around 10-sh PM (it's not easy to walk over snowy trails).
Anyways, after getting back, started to drive out, and on that snowy twisty dirt road, the car stalled. On one particuarly steep hill, about middle of the way up, the front wheels slipped, and the car slid downhill, with it's rear wheels going into a ditch on the side of the road. (good thing it went into the left side of the road, as opposed to off-the-cliff on the right side of the road).
Getting a Corolla (front wheel drive) out of a ditch with only 1-front-wheel semi-on-the-road (which is covered in snow that made the whole car slip downwards) isn't easy. I tried everything. Car mats. Rocks. Even clearing snow under the tire. Moving forwards and backwards, etc. I even tried lifting the car... first by hand (yeah, didn't get far---a car is surprisingly heavy, couldn't even make it move with all my weight), then with car jack. Jack up the car, put a rock under the wheel, and then jack up again, etc. That didn't work--- the road is just too slippery.
After fiddling with things on trying to get the car out, gave up, and headed out in search of help. The other alternative was to stay in the car over night (and hope there's someone there in the morning). This being a remote dirt road of a fairly remote park, during a govermnet shutdown (I'm thinking no-rangers-on-duty kind), I thought I need to find my own way out instead of sitting and waiting for help.
So headed towards visitor's center. That's one long-walk. On a snowy night. After walking the entire day :-/
The visitor's center got nobody. It's closed. The park map has some residential-looking-streets, so headed towards those. Most things in those streets turned out to be warehouses. But after a few miles, there were actual houses... (my guess, for park staff). But most of those looked empty---probably due to government shutdown :-/
After knocking on about 20 doors, one house had a barking dog, and the owner was one of the few park rangers that was still on duty during the gov shutdown. So after midnight, the park ranger (lets call him Bill; not his real name) and I, went to try to get my car out.
Funny thing about Corollas... they have no attachment points. There's no hooks on the front, and there's no tow thing on the back, so we didn't know what to attach the wench to. So with that, Bill gave me supplies (MRE food, sleeping bag, water, etc.) and I camped-out (inside-the car) overnight.
- Alex; 20190105
Flying out to Utah; will hike in Canyonlands :-)
- Alex; 20190104
Happy New Year!
- Alex; 20190101
Decided to upgrade the graphics card too---got Nvidia RTX 2080. Unfortunately Linux mint (ubuntu) doesn't recognize it out of the box, and had to go through quite a bit to install the proper drivers. In order to install the official nvidia drivers need to kill X server, and doing that isn't as simple as it used to be... it just pops back up as soon as it dies. Need to disable the service, etc.
- Alex; 20181215
Got Cooler Master ML360 RGB CPU Liquid Cooler to cool the Threadripper. Installed everything and it seems everything works without issues. The only thing needed was to adjust ram speed in BIOS.
- Alex; 20181206
Rebuilding my home server. Basic config is AMD Threadripper 2990 with 128gig ram. One component I got that didn't work was: Corsair H115i PRO RGB (the liquid cpu cooler). In newegg website said it was compatible with TR4 socket, and it wasn't. Getting another liquid cooler shipped overnight.
- Alex; 20181205
...and back in NYC :-)
- Alex; 20181126
Visiting Badwater in Death Valley National Park.
- Alex; 20181125
Visiting The Racetrack in Death Valley National Park.
Here's something to try while there: run really really fast with eyes closed. It's a very weird feeling not knowing what's ahead and yet running at full speed.
- Alex; 20181124
Doing a tiny hike in Bryce National Park.
- Alex; 20181123
Flying out to Las Vegas :-)
- Alex; 20181122
The future is not set. It doesn't exist until it happens. We remember the past, we don't remember the future. Yet past somehow seems to exist, we can refer back to it, we can look at and study historical events, etc. But is there really that much difference between the past and the future?
Whatever we know about the past is actually a recording. Unless we have something memorized in the present, then we don't know about it from the past. If there was an event in the past that nobody recorded, then it's just as mysterious to us as the event happening in the future. We can guess at the probabilities, etc., but in studying the past, only the present matters.
Whenever a recording device is involved, there's some bitrate---speed and accuracy with which it can record information. Similarly, there's a retrieval rate. The univesal recording device cannot possibly be recoding everything: it is very observer centric: unless an observation was made, then the event could've happened any possible way.
For example, an electron going through the double-slit experiment: if we record which way it goes, we have made an observation and a recording. We can refer back to that path later by saying ``yes, the electron went through the left slit''. But if we don't make a recording of which slit the electron went through, then the electron actually goes through all possible paths.
At a later stage, we cannot refer back to history and say ``ah, but if we look at the history (refer to the past), then the electron went through the left slit'', because there's no history, and we don't have a recording of it in the present... So as far as ``history'' is concerned, the electron went through all possible paths.
The same applies to the future. If we send an electron through a double slit experiment and explicitly don't look/make observations/recordings, then it appears to actually go through both slits. If we setup the experiment to check which way it goes, then it goes through the slit we observe, randomly of course. If it wasn't random, then there would be no point in recording the information (it would not be `information').
What would the universe without observations look like? Imagine if nothing was ``recorded'' in the present. Time would appear to stand still. In fact, it wouldn't ``appear'' anything, it just wouldn't be anything. So for time to move, events need to be observed and recorded.
Lets look at the dead cat in the box. A cat is locked in a box with some poison. A random event (truly quantum-random) may release the poison. Now, in our macro world, the cat is either dead OR alive. We don't know which one until we open the box. In the quantum world, the cat is "both" dead AND alive (it has yet-to-be-observed histories of it dead AND alive). There's no information yet. If the cat behaved like the electron flying through the left or right slit, then technically it would be flying through "both", which is hard to imagine for a macroscopic object like a cat in a box.
But what's the process by which the past gets recorded and gets turned into the present? How many bits of information can the present hold? (we've already seen that we cannot record ``everything''). Is that number of bits constant, or does it expand as we make observations?
If it's constant, then making left-or-right slit observation must ``forget'' some recorded bit somewhere. Perhaps the universe leaks bits on the edges (or black holes?).
- Alex; 20181031
Below are my views and do not reflect the opinions of anyone else:
Valuations: there are several ways of evaluating investments. For example, bonds give us a very direct way of evaluation: a bond pays us a well defined interest---so there are only three things we have to worry about: whether the bond will eventually be repaid, interest rates, and inflation.
In case of government (and many municipal) bonds, we don't need to worry about default, and in many cases inflation is correlated with interest rates, so there's only one thing we really need to worry about. High future interest rates means that our bonds lose value and vice versa.
If we expect interest rates to go higher, locking in a rate via a bond is a bad idea (on the flip side, borrowing at a low rate is generaly a good idea).
Bonds of corporations are best avoided altogether. Ask yourself, if you had a company and you needed to raise capital, which one would you issue, bonds or stock? The mathematics are pretty straight forward: if you expect to earn a bigger return than the interest you pay, you issue bonds, otherwise you issue stock.
In other words, if the company is sound, and they're issuing bonds, you'd make a better return from stocks. If the company isn't sound and is issuing stock, then you'd better avoid the stocks of such a comapny. Never buy bonds (or stock) if you believe the company is on its last leg. (unless you think they're a buyout target, or if liquidation of the company is expected to bring in more than the price).
For stocks, the evaluation is a bit tricky.
We can take the bond approach: treat equity as a contract that pays us some ``interest'' (dividend) every so often until the end of time. How much are those infinite dividends worth?
Money today is worth more than money tomorrow. Two in the bush vs one in the hand.
So we pick some reasonable discount rate (often approximately the current interest rate), and discount all the future dividends by that rate until we hit zero. The sum of all such payments is what the contract is ``worth'' (this is essentialy how much gain we expect to get out of the contract over its entire lifetime). Note that there's no principle in this scenario---there's just dividends, and nothing else. So that's the only thing we use to evaluate the worth of a stock certificate.
For example, if a company pays us $1 in dividends this year, and we expect that to continue, and we also expect interet rates to be about 3% or so (which is historically very low), we can say that each share is worth about: $30.
Obviously the price of each share could be $45 in the market. Or it could be $25. The $30 number just says if you look at dividend alone, you really shouldn't pay more than that. In this scheme, you ignore the fact that you could potentially sell the share for $45 next year: the basic idea is that if you owned the share for a lifetime, what financial benefit you would get from the company because of said ownership.
Many companies don't pay dividends. We could say such comapnies are worth exactly $0 (as we don't benefit from being the shareholders).
We could also use a proxy measure: earnings. Assuming earnings are reinvested and build up value of the company, each share should gain by the amount of the earnings. Discounted into the future of couse.
For example, if our company made $2 per share, how much would we expect such earnings to be worth? Lets assume 5% discount rate, or about $40 price.
Why did we use 5% for earnings and 3% for dividends? Guesses. But generally we should discount earnings at a higher rate than dividends, as money in our pocket is worth more than money in someone else's pocket. (money that we control is worth exactly what it is, but if some greedy/incompetent manager is in charge of our money, it's worth much less than the actual dollar amount).
In the above, valuation we ended up with P/E of 20. (price/earnings, 40/2).
Let's pretend that we had almost a decade (from 2008 til 2017) of extraordinary low rates (0-1%), and the discount that many analysts used was 1%. That company that earned 2$ a share would ``demand'' a $200 share price, or P/E in the 50-100 range.
Then Fed steps in and tightens the rates to 2%, now our valuation should point towards a $100/share price. But the intersia in the market keps markets afloat at $200.
The Fed tightens things a bit more: rate is 3%. Now that $2 earnings demands only $66 or so share price. The market is still up: the stock is still priced at $200.
Let's put this in perspective: if we buy a government bond at 3% (the 10 year treasury bond), we'd expect a higher return on our money than buying that $2 earnings for $200.
Yes, earnings could come up. But they could also come down. If a comapny has been earning $2 a year for a while, bumping that up to $4 is hard. Many companies are already optimize and squeezed quite a bit... bot pulling out more earnings out of the same process is difficult.
What happens when rates go to 4%?
That's why the market panics every time the Fed bumps up the rate number. Nobody wants to be the last one holding those shares at $200 when they fall back to $40 or so.
Revenue is another thing folks have used to evaluate stocks. But we got to be careful: revenue isn't the same as profit. High revenue could mean high losses.
Large enterprises with no earnings (and no dividends) is another thing to look out for. Yes, the company could be putting everything its got back into research and development (which often increases company value)---or they could be lavishly rewarding the management or funding go-nowhere projects or badly concieved aquisitions.
- Alex; 20181029
Decided to rebuild the desktop. Tentatively thinking of AMD Threadripper as the CPU.
- Alex; 20181028
My primary desktop quit. It shutdown, and now no indication of life when I press the power button. The board is getting power (there's a small LED on the board, but that's about it. No fan. No disk spin, nothing. Seems completely dead :-/
- Alex; 20181007
Happy B-Day to yours truly :-D
- Alex; 20181005
||Or, you can directly go to a desired entry.|
|NOTICE: We DO NOT collect ANY personal information on this site.|
||© 1996-2016 by End of the World Production, LLC.