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News, Updates, & Rants...
Happy PI day!
Happy landing anniversary!
And in other news, Stephen Hawking died. His book, A Brief History of Time was literally the first book I've ever borrowed from a library (yes, eventually I bought a copy of my own). That book inspired me to read more and more on the subject.
His primary idea, that black holes evaporate, is awesome. It's very weird how it works if you think about it... a pair of virtual particles forms just at the endge of the event horizon. One of them falls in, and somehow that causes the black hole to get smaller! (the system of the particle outside the black hole has more energy than the system with the particle already in the black hole---and that energy difference is carried off by the other particle of the virtual pair). Pretty awesome stuff.
- Alex; 20180314
So my car (Toyota 4Runner) was recalled due to faulty passenger-side air-bag inflator. Scheduled an appointment at and went to Queensborough Toyota to have it serviced---and after walking around their showroom for about an hour, waiting for my car to get done, they come back and say they don't have the part and will need to order it :-/
So will need to come back. Urgh. Why couldn't they have ordered the part before the appointment? They knew WHY I was coming there, they knew exactly the car and year, etc., it's not like they couldn't have known they don't have the part :-/
- Alex; 20180313
Uh, oh, more storms!
Took the kiddo to the B&N book store today, and for a walk around union square.
- Alex; 20180312
Happy Anniversary :-D
Time flies like an arrow... and fruit flies like a banana :-)
- Alex; 20180311
Fixed my Ikea bed. The other day, it fell apart. Or rather, a tiny welded piece of it fell off such that the whole thing just sorta didn't hold together. Upon Suneli's suggestion, we got nuts and bolts at Home Depot (cheap stuff, 11 cents for a bolt, 6 cents for a nut, and 17 cents for a spring washer), drilled two holes right through the broken weld, in the metal piece and the leg of the bed, then just screwed the two components together---very tight. I think it's stronger now than it was when it was new.
Feeling awesome having finally done something productive with my toolbox :-)
- Alex; 20180309
So much for the storm. At least in NYC, it didn't snow nearly as badly as in other places.
- Alex; 20180307
Uh, oh, storm!
- Alex; 20180306
Stopped by the physical Amazon store, and it's awesome! It's like books and little trinkets, right on the shelves. I was surprised to find that a large percentage of the books on the shelves I've actually read (apparently those are the ones that folks buy the most?) so they stock them in the physical store?
Pretty nice store. Not sure if I'd make it a point to go in there (shopping on amazon.com is just so much easier). But if you want to have a coffee and flip through a book before buying, that's a pretty good alternative to... amm... Barnes & Noble (which often has starbucks coffee :-)
- Alex; 20180301
- Alex; 20180228
Today is my last day at FINRA :-/ I've been with market regulation (first at NYSE and then at FINRA) for almost 13 years---not counting SIAC :-). The database my team built quite literally changed the industry.
Still haven't decided on what to do next. Join another place asap, or take a break and work on my PhD (thinking of a greedy optimization mechanism for n-tuple networks; similar to information gain measure in decision tree construction).
Anyways, good times ahead...
- Alex; 20180223
Kiddo discovered loud noise, or rather, that he can make loud noise. Before, it was reasonably loud giggles, how it's volume-set-to-11 giggles... mostly whenever something fun happens on TV (he's a big fan of Sunny Bunnies on YouTube Kids).
- Alex; 20180219
Kiddo graduated from size 2 diapers to size 3 diapers :-D
- Alex; 20180217
``It doesn't make sense to hire smart people and then tell them what to do; we hire smart people so they can tell us what to do.'' --Steve Jobs
- Alex; 20180216
Aveeno baby products rock! (no, they didn't pay me to say this).
- Alex; 20180213
Noticed that my kid started to recognize himself in the mirror. Before, he'd just look at the mirror, without much of a reaction. Now he's smiling and staring into his own eyes, and then smiling some more... :-)
- Alex; 20180212
Ran a few more experiments on EMNIST. Wrote a tiny hand written digit recognizer using n-tuple classifier. 22% error rate :-/ My guess is that for printed characters this would've yielded the published 90% accuracy (which isn't great by today's standards, but for a 20-line Perl script, it's not bad).
In other news, applied for Ian's passport today.
- Alex; 20180202
Learned something clever today: apparently we can do partial regression. e.g. in linear system y = x1*w1 + x1*w1 + ... xN*wN, if we run multiple regressions, on x1..x5, x6..x10, etc., x(N-5)..xN, the results will be the same if we fit all the dimensions at the same time. It's actually not hard to see why this works... think back to how gradient descent would fit all these dimensions: it would adjust each weight individually. So given samples in 100D space (the projections onto lower dimensions are still from 100D space), we can run 20 regressions of 5D each, and get the same weights as if we ran regression in 100D space.
- Alex; 20180201
Finished The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith.
Pretty nice book---in fact, the best book on politics I've ever read. Also awesome for understanding corporate dynamics (and why for example Warren Buffett says his descendants should sell most of their Berkshire shares after he's gone). Highly recommend :-)
- Alex; 20180131
My kid rolled from stomach back onto his back today for the first time :-)
In other news, guess I'll be leaving FINRA next month...
- Alex; 20180130
First day of Spring classes :-)
- Alex; 20180129
So apparently there will very likely be an ``Introduction to Data Science'' course at Brooklyn College in Fall 2018.
- Alex; 20180126
Got The Stanley Parable. It's awesome. Pretty unique game. Kind of similar to Portal :-)
- Alex; 20180121
Finished reading The Rise and Fall of D.O.D.O.: A Novel Hardcover by Neal Stephenson and Nicole Galland.
I'm a big Stephenson fan, and I can only imagine that this book has less Stephenson and more Galland. Really, that's the kind of books that he puts his name on these days?
Strangely, the concepts dealt with in this book were explored in Anathem: time/things unfold in a certain way, and if you know how to do it, you can steer time/things in a certain direction. In Anathem, it were the inner circle monks who could control radioactive decay (simply avoid histories where they get cancer from radiation and/or die, allowing them to live a really long time), and in D.O.D.O, it's witches (who could perform all sorts of magic, but only when isolated from the rest of the universe).
In any case, terrible book. Some parts are entertaining, but that's about it. Ending sucks too---very flat, no action or anything. Keep waiting for stuff to happen, and then it just doesn't and the book ends (come to think of it, that explains a lot of Stephenson's books---but usually there's a lot to chew on throughout the book, this one is kind of not fun :-)
- Alex; 20180119
Eh. Meltdown and Spectre. Speculative execution is apparently a security issue... so lets slow down everyone's computers by 30%.
Seriously though, I understand being very careful about such things in a shared environment, where you and everyone else are sharing the same machine to run virtualized stuffs... but for a personal computer mostly used for gaming... keep the security hole with the performance. (If the fix for this is pushed down everyone's throats, then it's not about rogue programs or attackers, it's about protecting DRM).
In other news, anyone claiming cloud to be "more secure than in-house hardware" should own up to their claims. This bug has been "out there" for months---months during which anyone's cloud data could've been compromised.
- Alex; 20180104
Warren Buffett wins $1M bet against hedge funds and gives it to girls' charity. This should be front page news for everyone.
``In 2007, the famed billionaire investor made a $1 million bet that an S&P 500 stock index fund would outperform a basket of hedge funds over the course of a decade. The index fund returned 7.1% compounded annually over the 10-year period, easily beating the 2.2% average return of a basket of funds picked by asset manager Protege Partners.''
- Alex; 20180103
Happy New Year!
- Alex; 20180101
So... CUNYfirst pulled the plug on grade submission early this year (the deadline is usually after the new years; this year, it was December 26th). All students got a 'Z' grade, and changing it to a proper grade is apparently a big pain in the neck. Might take sometime for the registrar to enter the proper grades.
- Alex; 20171228
Last day of database class. Yey.
- Alex; 20171206
Ok, so every year I'm disappointed by the quality of ``hackers'' at the YHack. This year, things hit a new level. How could a senior in computer science from Some-Ivy-School not know what happens when you click the submit button on a web-page... I mean, that there's a request to some sort of server, etc. Yes, that may not be part of the course load, but if you're techy enough to get a computer science degree, how can you not be just a bit curious about how the web works? Perhaps students were just half sleeping, but I saw some pretty amazing questions, such as `why is this .csv file not in json format'. The other issue is that many (too many) students seem to have a Macbook---and yeah yeah, it's all ``unix'', but unfortunately Macbook users I've seen have very little unix knowledge. So they're trying to build something on a machine they can only point-and-click on...
- Alex; 20171203
Spending weekend at YHack.
A surprising number of students, when asked ``do you own stock'' answered ``no, but I own bitcoin''. That's scary!!!
- Alex; 20171202
Went to a NYSE Christmas Tree lighting event. Awesome event. Unfortunately couldn't go to the party inside :-/
- Alex; 20171130
For the first time, inhaled a helium balloon. Wow, voice really does become chipmunk-like.
Other thoughts: there's a star, very very far away---all we see is a dot. One day, once the universe expands quite a bit, that star will be at the farthest reaches of space where light can still reach us... a bit after that, space between us and the star will be expanding faster than the speed of light---that star will become unreachable---forever outside of our "universe".
Will that star just wink out of existence? Will it get dimmer and dimmer and then wink, or will it just wink out of existence? How would it look like from our perspective---shouldn't the star's time (from our perspective) come to a stop?
If time stops for the star, how can it wink out of existence, or get dimmer?
If just stops... like time for the star stops, and all we see is a still-frame of the star, frozen forever outside of time... then where do the photons that reach our eyes come from? (the star can't be generating new ones that reach our eyes).
- Alex; 20171129
- Alex; 20171123
The kid and Suneli are back home from the hospital :-)
- Alex; 20171108
Another day of running around. Shopping.
- Alex; 20171107
One tough day... running around a lot.
- Alex; 20171106
At exactly daylight-savings clock-change (at 2:00am, when they move clock back to 1:00am), my son Ian was born. So he was `just-born' AND `1-hour old', at the same time on the same day :-)
Happy Birthday kid!
It's interesting to note that my b-day is 10/5, and my kid's is 11/5. And today is a prime day, 11 is prime, 5 is prime, 17 is prime, and 2017 is prime :-)
- Alex; 20171105
- Alex; 20171104
Interesting things are happening. Keeping fingers crossed.
- Alex; 20171103
Finally got the Pixel 2 :-)
- Alex; 20171019
Happy B-Day to yours truly :-D
Other bdays: Slashdot turned 20 years old today. The first IBM Thinkpad was released exactly 25 years ago today.
- Alex; 20171005
LIGO detected yet another black hole merger!
Soon: gravitational wave telescopes; each detector now is just a single ``pixel''---if we had thousands of said detectors (and if they were a bit more sensitive), we'd be able to ``observe'' the universe using gravitational waves...
- Alex; 20170927
9/11: It's that time of the year again.
16 years later, and the rebuilding effort at WTC is finally starting to look like it's actually happening. The memorial site is full of tourists, and there's lot of new construction in the area.
The Oculus windows apparently open up for 9/11---but only for a short time.
- Alex; 20170911
Went to hike Mnt.Washington. Awesome hike. Lots of people. In fact, I've never seen that many hikers on that trail. Ever. The main parking lot got full. Then overflow parking lot got full. Then the other overflow parking lot had a few spaces left (that's where I parked), but then even that filled up. By the time I got back from the hike, there was about half a mile of cars parked on the side of the road, in addition to full parking lots. Yea, very full.
Did the usual loop: up Boot Spur trail, then camel trail to the lake, then summit, then down via Tuckerman. About 3.5 hours up, and 2 hours down.
There's snow on the trail!
- Alex; 20170902
Finished reading The Data Warehouse Toolkit: The Definitive Guide to Dimensional Modeling by Ralph Kimball, Margy Ross. This book is awesome. I wish I read it a while back---like 15 years ago. Can't really say what I learned form it, but it's the subjects that any data modeler will encounter, and this book offers a few perspectives on different ways of approaching modeling decisions.
- Alex; 20170825
It seems many folks don't really understand the concept of freedom of speech. In short, it means folks have the right to offend you with their speech (their opinions, their views, etc.).
- Alex; 20170823
A Solution of the P versus NP Problem by Norbert Blum. Seems clever, but it falls into the same trap as my attempt from about 20 years ago: proving lower bound on anything is pretty much impossible, and no, the paper doesn't prove it.
UPDATE 2017-08-31: The author of the paper now says: ``The proof is wrong.'' (in coments section).
- Alex; 20170815
Attended the AWS Summit at Jacob Javits Center today. Got 7 t-shirts :-)
Besides free t-shirts, can't really say there was anything useful said or presented. It's all advertising, corps selling ETL solutions, migration solutions, log analysis solutions, etc., It's all about ``using our tool you can blah blah blah''... not actually useful stuff, like ``you can make this practical by such and such non-intuitive method.''
- Alex; 20170814
Finished Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind by Yuval Noah Harari. This is an awesome book. I wasn't expecting much, but this book is filled with history, philosophy, and lots of insights. Definitely recommend it.
- Alex; 20170812
I know what's inside black holes: Inside every black hole, is... another black hole, except with 1-quantum smaller surface area. What's inside that inner black hole? Yet another black hole. It's black holes all the way down. What happens when you get to a black hole so tiny that it just cannot have anymore black holes in it? You've reached the 1-quantum sized black hole, and it's not a black hole at all---it's just a quantum of energy.
Can anything leave a black hole? According to popular belief, no. ``Not even light.''
Then we got that Hawking radiation thing going---where a virtual particle pair just randomly appears near the event horizon. One of the virtual pair particles falls into the black hole, and the other one speeds away in the opposite direction---making it appear like it came from within the black hole. The virtual particle that falls in actually decreases the total mass of the black-hole-and-orbiting-particle---so the black hole appears to have lost mass. So it really looks like the black hole emitted a particle and lost mass as a result. According to Hawking, this is the primary mechanism by which black holes appear to lose mass and eventually evaporate. Unfortunately this mechanism causes a host of problems.
The primary problem with Hawking radiation evaporating black holes is that the radiation is random. It's random virtual particle-pairs, where one happens to fall into the black hole. It's not something that originates within the black hole. So the black hole evaporates without somehow any of its contents leaving it. This process does not appear reversible---all physics laws (as far as we know) are fully reversible, even quantum ones, and black holes appear to violate that. We cannot replay physics backwards---as the stuff that falls into the black hole never leaves it.
So lets pretend that Hawking radiation is the wrong process. We know black holes have a temperature, but how else can they radiate away their mass? In other words, how would they have a temperature without any of its contents leaving?
Apparently nobody knows. Really. Even Hawking is now backpedaling the whole destruction of information that Hawking radiation implied.
One possibility is quantum uncetainty: We cannot, with certainty, determine the position of any particle. Not even when that position in inside the black hole. In other words, we may be pretty sure that the particle is inside the black hole, but there exists a non-zero probability that it isn't. So the particle that fell into a black hole may be detected outside the black hole. Neat, no?
There's a catch: the bigger the black hole, the less likely this would be. So the bigger the black hole, the less rapidly its particles would tunnel out of it---perhaps with rates similar to Hawking radiation. In fact, observationally, the process may look identical to Hawking radiation---but since the particles are now coming from the inside, the information of stuff that fell in is preserved. It's irrelevant that we cannot observe the process, we just know that eventually everything that went in will come out (in scrambled state, but still come out).
Where am I going with all this? I believe black holes is just another method of burning mass/matter.
For example, chemical fires (for example, a candle) converts one kind of molecule into other kinds of molecules, with less chemical bond energy. If we capture all the inputs and outputs of the process, the resulting products will have a slightly lower mass---with escaped heat (light) being the difference. Now, classic physics tells us that the process is reversible. We can burn a piece of paper, capture the gasses, etc., and reconstruct it back. But really we cannot---the light that escapes is out forever. There's nothing that can push that light into the ashes and reconstitute the paper. (e.g. how would such light photons be captured or even observed without disturbing them?). So stuff (chemical bond energy) is burned and it's gone forever... Note we're not talking about the ash here, but the heat that escapes.
Yes perhaps we can reconstruct the paper from the ashes, but that would require way more energy than was released from the one-way-burn process.
We can call this increasing disorder entropy, but entropy has other meanings, so don't want to overload that term.
Anyways, chemical fires burn chemical bond energy---the light goes out into the universe never to be seen again (at least not unless that light collides with something).
Stars burn atoms. Instead of chemical bonds, they burn strong nuclear forces. The resulting elements have less mass than the products---again, the heat escapes out into the universe. This process can continue from hydrogen all the way upto iron. Iron has the lowest energy, so stars cannot burn iron---kind of like fire cannot burn ashes. As stars explode, some heavier elements form, and those eventually decay as well, as they're not stable.
So non-nuclear leaves us with molecules. Stars leave us with iron. What's beyond? If we push more matter into a dying star, it will collapse into a white dwarf. That's just a ball of compressed matter that is being held up by electron forces---it is not burning matter. It's just hot due to the original star, but it's not actively turning matter into energy. It's cooling off, but that's it. Next scale is a neutron star---one that collapses beyond electron forces and is being held by neutrons not wanting to be inside each other. Again, these stars are just hot remnants and aren't actively turning matter into energy. They will eventualy cool off, etc.
Next step beyond neutron stars is black holes. These apparently do evaporate (using whatever process)... meaning that they consume matter and turn it into heat. This is burning matter into energy again---same as the sun, except it's happening at such ridiculous conditions that we're not allowed to see it.
Why would this seem right at all? For one, nobody really knows what's going on inside a black hole, and this guess is as good as any.
The other is what's going on inside our sun: two hydrogen atoms fuse to form helium. The energy/light from this reaction doesn't just leave the sun. Because the center is very dense, it takes light hundreds of thousands of years of bouncing around to reach the outer layer of the sun to escape. Now, imagine if the sun was bigger, it would take longer. If the sun was denser, it would take even longer. It's not hard to imagine where this ``time'' would appear to be infinite. In other words, a fusion reaction at the center of the sun generating energy, and due to bouncing around that photon practically never leaving the sun---that would be a black hole.
- Alex; 20170810
After a really long and tiring hike up the south rim trail, got to the summit around 8:30am: about 4.5 hour hile. This trail should really take a lot less time. Last year in July, I did this exact ascent in 3 hours 10 minutes. This year, the restaurant food at the north rim caused me a great deal of problems, so was extremely tired and hungry. But yey, got out of the canyon!
Then drove directly to Pilot gas station. There's one on the way to Flagstaff. Got breakfast, took a shower, and then decided to be a tourist and just drive around. First stop: Meteor Crater.
On the drive to Meteor Crater, noticed a road sign for Walnut Crater National Monument, and decided to check it out. It turned out to be a really cool place. It's a monument to a village that lived on cliffs of a canyon. Like literally in the air---on the walls of the canyon. Like a highrise building---except this is ancient times. Did the ``short'' loop trail (by this time, was a bit tired of walking). It's awesome. Next time I'm in that area, will definitely do the longer trail. It's one of the wonders that I've never heard about.
Then back on the road to Meteor Crater. Did the 30 minute tour, clicked some pictures, and... with more time on my hands, decided to visit Sunset Crater National Momument. It's all in the same vacinity, so might as well.
Got to Sunset Crater, did a short hike through a lava field, etc. Then headed for Phoenix a bit early. Just in case there's traffic.
On the way to Phoenix, right around sunset time, stopped by ``Sunset Point'' rest area... and enjoyed just sitting down and looking at the sunset. Then drive drive drive to Phoenix, returned car, and then nearly pass out at the airport.
- Alex; 20170806
Arrived in Phoenix, rented a box-on-wheels (Ford Fiesta), and proceeded to the Grand Canyon South Rim. Stopped by Flagstaff Walmart for supplies (gatorade, etc.)
Started hike around 6-ish in the morning, and slowly walked down to Phantom ranch. Supplies: 3L of gatorade (the entire water blader full). I've been going with gatorade for the last few hikes, it's much better at hydration than pure water. In addition to gatorade, filled up another bottle with 1L of mike's harder lemonade (mostly more sugars). For protein, got about a dozen (14?) Popeye's Chicken strips---packed that whole box into my backpack. Also brought salty nuts, and three protein bars.
From Phantom, walk to Ribbon Falls by rock-hopping-crossing-river (didn't get wet---mostly because other hikers said it can be done; it didn't look like it was possible, but eh, when you know it can be, it's easy).
On the way back from Ribbon Falls, learned that the Ribbon Falls bridge (the one I didn't cross) was apparently ``out of service'' (there's a sign on the bridge, but other than that, the bridge is just there as before---and I did cross it---there are no rocks to hop to cross river there, and it looks way more dangerous at that spot).
A bit farther up the trail, there was a fork to ``Raging Springs" (or something) that I never took. I always assumed it was another waterfall, but since the trail led downhill, I always put it off (nobody wants to walk downhill after spending the previous hour walking straight up---fighting gravity at every step). Anyways, this time I decided to see what's there. And yes, it does go down, perhaps 300 feet vertical or so. At the end? A bathroom. Raging Springs is probably yet-another-campground. Live and learn.
After that, no diversions; just getting to the north rim summit. By then the liquid supplies were mostly replaced by water, and half the chicken was gone. Snacked a bit at the Bright Angel point, and then went to be a tourist. Stopped by the lodge and asked about dinner there---and surprisingly, they didn't require a reservation---so went for a dinner there. Big mistake. Whatever fancy fish dish I ordered, didn't go down well at all. It tasted fine, but afterwards gave me trouble for the rest of the weekend. So... next time I'll just go for pulled-pork-sandwedge from the non-touristy caffeteria.
Started down the north rim around 8PM---was dark by then. I've never done that part of the trail in the dark. There's a cave about 2 miles down, and those two miles or so are used for mules, to bring tourists up and down that trail. And there's shit all over the trail---so much so that the entire trail feels soft. Well, during the day it's quite easy to avoid stepping into stuff. You walk on the side of the trail, side stepping the freshly-wet parts. In the dark, it's quite another matter. VERY hard to walk---and the headlamp cannot be made bright enough to see all that stuff.
Past the shitty part of the trail, it was all good. Slowly walked to ranger station (right downhill from north rim), and napped on a bench there for a bit. Then walked to Phantom ranch, and napped on a bench there too. Then started up the south rim around 4AM... with 5L of water.
- Alex; 20170805
Imagine a candle, with a flame. Imagine that the candle is made out of some very efficient stuff, such that when it burns, the only output is light, and the candle gets fully consumed. Now, obviously such a candle cannot exist---it's a chemical reaction, there will be gases that are produced, etc.
But what's important is that this burning candle is a controlled conversion of the candle-material into the products (such as gases and heat/light). The whole candle doesn't just burst on fire: there's just enough material consumed every moment to maintain a more-or-less constant-size flame (the `standard candle').
Now picture a black hole.
Hawking radiation: the bigger the black hole, the less it radiates. A tiny black hole will radiate quite brightly---eventually even exploding.
What if the black hole was just the right size---just like the candle. Whatever energy it radiates, we throw in an equivalent amount of mass into it. Sort of like a black hole on a stick---kind of like the flame on a candle. Can we maintain it at exactly the same size indefinitely? (e.g. will it just burn on-and-on like a candle?).
What exactly is this kind of burning? It's not a chemical reaction---but it is a reaction: it converts matter directly into energy (light). Feed the black-hole-flame a bit of mass, and an equivalent amount (by E=mc^2) of Hawking radiation should come out. The black hole will not create energy or mass out of nothing.
But there's something clever going on too. This conversion process would appear to be free.
In other words, it would be perfectly efficient. Throw in 1kg of mass, and E=mc^2 of light would come out. Throw in another 1kg and the same happens. And it would appear we could maintain that reaction indefinitely. Just feed the black hole exactly the mass for it to remain constant size.
So how is this possible, and how would a reverse reaction look like? Every physical process that we know of has a reverse button. We can replay the physics backwards: can we replay this process backwards?
Hawking radiation is random. Virtual particle pair forms near the event horizon. One of the virtual particles falls into the black hole, and reduces its mass---the pair virtual particle flies in the opposite direction. It was never in the black hole---and has no information from it. It's random. Like perfectly random---as far sa we know.
So imagine we capture all this perfectly truly random radiation, and reflect it back into the black hole... and a 1kg brick of matter that we threw in should come out? (how likely is that?).
Why does this look like a one-way process?
- Alex; 20170802
Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Awesome book. I read his other books, and this one is a few notches beyond his other works. It's more of a philosophy book that sums up his previous writing into a neat little idea: fragile things tend to break (and not easily fixed). Robust things tend not to break, but don't realy gain from stress. Antifragile things not only don't break from stressors, but they actually improve.
For example, our muscles become stronger the more we exercise them. The more mental challenges we face, we generally become smarter. But the more we try to control stress, say by getting a stready full-time job, as opposed to several non-steady part-time jobs... we're suddenly become fragile (a middle-manager at a company is just one afternoon away form having no career... a cab driver may have a day of no income, yet his long term income is fairly resiliant to stress).
The basic idea is that most situations do have an asymetry in payoff. We're hurt more by bad news than are benefited by good news. That's asymetry. What if we setup the asymetry to be the other way around. Like benefiting from bad news, and mosty being flat on the good news? (or also benefiting?). Taleb calls it the ballbell... part one: get rid of stuff that hurts you, then use asymetry to maximize return. Since Taleb made a fortune in options market, his examples involve options...his world resolves around options. For example, imagine you buy a share of stock, the return on that investment is some variable X. Stock goes up, X is up, stock goes down, X is down. Linear. What if you buy a put option. The result now is f(X), which is a function if X... stock goes down, your put option goes up. Stock goes up, your return still goes up. You've just used an option to eliminate the downside...and become antifragile to price movement.
Obviously the option wasn't free. You paid for that insurance. But look at the asymetry... worst case scenario, you'll lose the price of the option... but either stock goes up or down, you'll do OK. You can buy a call option instead of the actual stock, and benefit from any volatility---you've become antifragile---you're benefiting from stress... anything that sends stocks either up or down will be good for your portfolio. (obviously the stock may stay flat, in which case you lose the cost of the option).
Taleb's strategy: take as many options as possible---many of them may even be free (non-financial ones). Avoid systems in which the costs are unbounded... e.g. don't sell a put or call option. Bound the losses, and gains will come from randomness.
In any case, highly recommend this book---it's pretty good philosophy with a guide on how to avoid some bad outcomes.
In other news, got Linksys AC1200 WiFi Adapter (WUSB6300). So far, it rocks. Can't tell the difference between Gigabit Ethernet and WiFi. It doesn't work on Linux out of the box---need to compile a kernel module, but besides that, it's awesome fast---all for $20. Getting 800Mbps with my setup (using Linksys AC3200 as router).
- Alex; 20170730
Random thought: what's sqrt(2) anyways? It's irrational, so nothing can ever be measured to be sqrt(2). We cannot have a ruler show us a length of exactly sqrt(2). But then the primary contribution of quantum mechanics was that measurement is the important part---it's meaningless to speak of things outside of measuring them. So where does that leave sqrt(2)?
- Alex; 20170720
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